A Trend Analysis: Forecasting Growth Performance of Production and Export of Chilli in Pakistan
Mehar Ul Nissa Rais1*, Tahmina Mangan1, Jam Ghulam Murtaza Sahito1 and Naeem Ahmed Qureshi2
ABSTRACT
Chilli is an economically very important and valuable crop of Pakistan, which is consumed domestically and exported throughout the world. The present research was carried out to examine province wise production, export growth performance and forecasting of chilli in Pakistan. Annual time series data of 38 years (1981-2018) of chilli production and export was employed for this study. Overall, chilli production of the Pakistan exhibited a positive growth of 1 percent over the time; however, in Pakistan negative growth was recorded during 2001-02 and 2011-12, these losses can be attributed to major floods, diseases attack, poor management practices and shortage of high yielding varieties. Sindh is major producer of chilli with 85 percent contribution in chilli production of Pakistan. Sindh and Balochistan provinces depicted a positive growth of 0.016 percent and 0.035 percent, respectively. Growth performance of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces portrayed negative growth rate -0.044 percent and -0.006 percent, respectively. Forecasting model indicates R2 value of 0.45 percent, which is a positive sign of increase in production and export in the next 10-18 years. Based on findings, there is a need to organize the training programs to increase the awareness among the chilli growers to increase chilli production and quality for increase export share in the world market.
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